ScenarioPlanningExodus

From Bricowiki

We need a diverse as possible participation. Diversity in as many ways as possible is critical, and unorthodox, challenging thinkers more than welcome for starting some provocative discussion about the future. Read AboutScenarioPlanning or, if and when you feel like it, jump in!

Key focus

We identify a key decision that we face, discuss it, and develop a clear understanding of useful questions to ask about that decision. To get to a key decision in a next scenario planning, we can explore more general areas of risk and opportunity first:

• What are the possible futures for the global system if and when a world-wide Exodus takes place?
• What are the possible futures for the Weaver Birds if and when a system collapse takes place?
• What is the Weaver Bird of the future (time frame: the next ten years)?
• ... More suggestions?

Part 1

Walking two different paths for answering a fundamental challenge: How to whittle the virtually infinite number of possible futures that could be described down to a manageable three or four plots that will shed the most light on Weaver Birds' future.

• ExodusBrainstormingKeyFactors - The two most critical uncertainties are placed in a 2x2 scenario matrix for deductive scenario logics.
• Exodus Inductive Scenario Logics - This path requires patience with an open ended debate. If uncomfortable with that, take the deductive road.
  • ExodusBrainstormDifferentEvents - This inductive approach of scenario planning is unsystematic and calls for a degree of creativity and imagination.
  • ExodusOfficialFutureDeviations - A slightly more systematic variant of the inductive approach
• ExodusDeductiveScenarioLogics - Use 2x2 matrix to develop logics

Part 2

Adressing the inverse question: Beefing up the in Part 1 chosen skeletal scenarios to discover the insights we seek.

• ExodusSystemsThinking
• ExodusBuildingNarratives
• ExodusCharacters
• Typical Plots
  • ExodusWinnersAndLosers
  • ExodusCrisisAndResponse
  • ExodusGoodNewsBadNews
• Weaver Bird Plots
  • ...